In the previous week or so, the run-up to one special election (what we in Canada would call a by-election) has generated more heat in the United States than the Ukrainian and Chilean elections – both of which represent important regional shifts – combined. That is the 2010 United States Senate special election for the state of Massachusetts, which will replace the Democrat Paul Kirk, who was in turn the appointed replacement for the deceased Ted Kennedy. Kirk will not run in the election, as he has stated very explicitly that he will be only a “bench-warmer” in the Senate.
The Democrats will be represented by Martha Coakley, the Attorney General of Massachusetts. The Republican candidate is Scott Brown, a member of the Massachusetts State Senate. Normally, the result of the contest would be a given – Massachusetts has a vast Democrat supermajority in both the State House and the State Senate, and all of the members they send to Congress and the Senate in Washington are, at the moment, Democrats. For a fiscal and mild social conservative like Brown to win in Massachusetts, the campaign would need to be made about a very polarizing issue.
Fortunately for Brown, it is. The issue that is in question is Obama’s performance, and whether the Democrats should be trusted with what is essentially complete power in the White House, Congress, and the Senate. Due to dissatisfaction with the Democrats in Washington, largely with Obama’s health care plan, the election has become very close. In some polls, Brown is ahead by up to seven points.
Obama has been forced to actively campaign for what has been a safe Democrat seat for decades, and the Democrats are still behind. Obama made a fatal error – he promised too much, and dealt with the things he did address inefficiently. The bailouts resulted in massive amounts of debt, and there have been numerous concerns with regard to his foreign policy. The big issue, however, was, and remains, health care. The health care plan of Obama bears a strong similarity to that of Mitt Romney, the last Republican governor in Massachusetts, which could be why it is such a polarizing issue there. Many felt that Romney’s plan was ineffective. On the right, the same criticisms now levied against Obama were being thrown at Romney. On the left, many might feel that Obama does not go far enough, and may just stay home. That leads to a decent point swing in Brown’s favour.
Obama should be worried. Little more than a year after being elected, he has already squandered most of the goodwill he campaigned on. In what was once one of the safest seats in the Union, he has been forced to fight as the underdog.
This election will decide the direction of America. And that is the reason it carries more weight and earns more headline space here than two national elections – in regional powers – combined.